We do not necessarily believe the following, or in fact, more to the point, we flat out think its bull***t. Analysts can get things wrong, and we just think Ben Bajarin’s assessment that Samsung will be forced to leave the smartphone industry within five year is just wrong.
Of course, perhaps Bajarin has the foresight that we simply lack, but we are talking about the largest smartphone brand on the planet, a company that turned over $6 billion profit over the last quarter alone. Samsung is here to stay for us, but according to Bajarin the company will suffer from the Innovators Dilemma where a company that was a market leading name starts to be chipped away by smaller companies.
That has happened to an extent for Samsung, with sales declining. However, we can’t see how this erosion could get so bad in five years that the company would throw in the proverbial towel. Bajarin says Apple (another company in a similar innovative position) is exempt from the dilemma simply because it is the only manufacturer on its iOS platform.
"If you are not familiar with the Innovator’s Dilemma, it is that, as a market matures, the early innovators get disrupted by competitors who come into their space with lower priced products, similar specs (the specs that matter), and eat into the market share of the early innovator in the category. Once the market embraces good enough products, the innovator can no longer push premium innovations as their value is diminished once a good enough mentality sets in. Android devices in the $200-$400 range are good enough for the masses leaving Samsung’s $600 devices and above stranded on an island."